The Promise of Economic Windfalls
The CTIA’s latest report by the prestigious NERA claims a dazzling economic boost once additional 5G spectrum is released. It boldly forecasts a $260 billion boost to GDP and the creation of 1.5 million jobs per 100 megahertz spectrum auctioned. However, a closer examination reveals this glittering prophecy may rest on shaky foundations.
Hidden Costs of Spectrum Transition
Clearing new spectrum doesn’t come without a hefty price tag or strategic risks. Ignoring the substantial fiscal and security implications of reallocating federal systems’ frequencies, the report omits the projection of potential disruptions to critical military communications. These crucial factors cast a shadow over the sought-after economic benefits from commercial reallocation.
Misjudging Midband Spectrum Impact
The report makes sweeping assumptions about spectrum value, treating all midband frequencies as equally lucrative. Notably, NERA overlooks the intricacies of existing midband assets like T-Mobile’s 2.5GHz and the uncertain fate of 6GHz allocations in China. Auction dynamics and deployment patterns render upper midbands economically less impactful than the rosy predictions painted by NERA.
Overlooking Technological Advancements
Releasing new spectrum isn’t the sole path to boosting network capacities. Technological evolution, from AI-driven efficiency to sophisticated radio systems, enables significant performance gains on existing frequencies. The report’s conclusion that additional spectrum is essential fails to factor in these potential advancements, which could satisfy future demands without expensive new spectrum.
Industry and Application Connectivity
The purported link between spectrum expansion and application utility is nebulous. With traffic growth predictions that challenge recent trends, many of the report’s conclusions hinge on questionable logic and metrics — undermining its credibility in estimating future economic impacts of hypothetical network congestion relief.
FWA’s Illusive Value Proposition
Turning to fixed wireless access (FWA), the report suggests that new spectrum could drastically extend coverage and profitability in underserved areas. Yet, real-world carrier hesitations to employ available options like CBRS and mmWave hint at deeper issues than mere spectrum scarcity.
In summation, the CTIA/NERA report, while optimistic, skirts substantial realities — casting doubt over its proposed economic bonanza from expanding 5G spectrum. Further scrutiny reveals a complex landscape intertwined with technological, fiscal, and strategic questions that cannot be ignored. According to RCR Wireless, it is essential to keep these realities in focus as stakeholders contemplate future spectrum policies.
